There has been a lot of talk in recent months about a looming commercial property crash and horror story headlines like “London bubble set to burst” but, in reality, these scaremongering tales are unfounded and premature.

Commercial property investment continues to be one of the safe havens for investor cash and the latest report from CoStar, a leading commercial property research organisation, shows that the appetite for these assets continues to grow.

The UK Commercial Property Investment Review Q2 2015 shows that we are on track for another record year of property investment and both the capital and the regions are continuing to be hugely attractive destinations for investors both at home and overseas.

In this latest blog I consider some of the findings of the CoStar report and consider what lies ahead.

The UK is one of the most active property investment markets in the world

There’s some fantastic insights in this video from CoStar, but perhaps the most important message is by founding partner of GM Real Estate Tony McCurley who says the UK is “on everyone’s shopping list”.

London remains the top global city for investment while the whole of the UK was the most active investment market in the world after the US over the past 12 months. We’ve seen another phenomenal year with £73.6bn poured into commercial property and it isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

We saw a total of £16.8bn invested in the UK in Q2 of this year, which was up 8% on the previous year, and £6.5bn of that money came from foreign investors, an incredible 44% increase on 2014.

Despite fears that falling yields in an overheated London market had seen it pass its peak, the research showed that the capital bounced back with investment surging 61% quarter-on-quarter and attracted £8.7bn in investment, up 46% on last year.

The UK regions also remain a hugely popular destination for investors as they continue to deliver the best yields and rental growth. For example, investment in the North East was up by 131% on the five-year quarterly average, with £308m invested in commercial property.

Why is the UK so attractive to investors?

The UK remains one of the most attractive investment destinations for a number of reasons. The main reason is the continuing strength of the economy and its fast growth. However, traditional draws like the market transparency and political stability have always provided a high degree of comfort for investors.

When you couple this with the potential for further growth in the regions and the continuing strength of the capital, it makes the UK an obvious choice.

Another major factor is the continuing instability around the globe. With the neverending woes in the Eurozone, conflict across the Middle East and Russia and China’s economies in turmoil, investors inevitably are looking to find safe havens for their money and the UK is proving to be a solid bet.

How are the individual commercial property sectors performing?

The report also shows its good news across the individual investment sectors. The office sector surged ahead in Q2, accounting for almost half of all investment. The strongest performers were London and the South East but I expect the regions to get stronger over the course of the year as we’re continuing to see a rise in demand and a number of new developments are now finally coming through the pipeline.

This rising demand coupled with a lack of available office space is also turning into optimism for developers and that will also see the return of speculative projects in the months to come.

Again industrial was a top performer and that is reflected across the country. The only blip was a drop in retail investment – which fell to its weakest level in two years – but that will recover in the second half of the year due to a number of major centres due to come to the market.

Yield compression also resumed strongly, reversing the brief upward movement we saw in Q1. The average all property yield compressed to a five-year low of 6.88% as yields fell in all sectors. With furious competition continuing in London, office yields also sank to a new low of 4.2.

What lies ahead for commercial property investors?

In my own opinion, property investment will remain to be a safe bet. As I said at the start, the likelihood of the bubble bursting is slim. While London is seeing a significant slowdown, I believe that’s just a sign that the capital is now stabilising and the regions still have plenty of room for growth.

This growth and soaring occupier demand will fuel confidence for investors and developers alike and we’ll see a raft of new speculative development in both the office and industrial sectors in the regions. There’s also still a huge weight of money looking for a home and that will deliver robust trading in the months ahead.

Yes, there are still some draconian elements to the market that dampen spirits a little – the threat of empty rates still continues to frighten developers – but that will only stall values briefly while everyone catches up.

The threat of an interest rate rise also still looms large on the horizon, but any increase will be very slow as the Bank of England looks to nurture the growth in the economy.

There’s been much talk of the impact of a Brexit – Britain leaving the EU – and even though this is unlikely, it will have little impact on property as it’s rarely heavily affected by short-term politics.

Couple all this with the continuing instability in a number of economies and nations around the world and the UK will continue to remain on every investors shopping list.

Nabarro - UK-Real-Estate-Riding-the-Wave-thumbnail The national law firm Nabarro have just published their latest UK Real Estate research which interviewed 271 property investment professionals who together are responsible for portfolios worth more than £400bn.

The research shares the insights and predictions of these investment experts and paints a buoyant picture for the real estate market in the years to come. In fact, the report itself is called “Riding the Wave” and suggests we are at the crest of the current cycle.

I’ve read through the report and share some of the most interesting things to emerge from it.

1. Property investors can be optimistic

The research found that more than three-quarters of those polled (77%) are more optimistic about the real estate market compared to last year and just 3% are more pessimistic. The combination of low interest rates and current property investment yields are a heady mix for investors compared to rival investments like Government bonds.

Equally, fears about an imminent downturn in the market have greatly reduced. Last year, almost a fifth of those polled feared a downturn within the next two years. In this poll, just 3% are worried about the same.

However, when you look at the five-year predictions, 42% of those polled say the chances of a downturn are high. This isn’t surprising as the research demonstrates many believe we are half-way through the current cycle and a major correction at some point will be inevitable.

With interest rates set to rise steadily at some point soon, but still remain at a historically low level, we will undoubtedly see a further correction in the property market, but this could well be felt by way of another stagnant period as a number of factors take hold.

These factors include the impact of a rate rise on those who continue to be burdened with high levels of debt. This could provide opportunities, however, business confidence is strong and any gradual increase in rates could be circumnavigated by improving occupier levels and an increase in rental growth.

The occupier market may improve investment stock availability as developers gain confidence, but this will take time and, at present, there seems sufficient investment demand to outstrip supply for a number of years.

The market is therefore likely to remain stable and supported by a growing occupier market and investor appetite. Adjoining these two factors is the global desire to invest in UK real estate which is seen as a “safe haven” while some European and Asian markets remain unstable.

Too much demand, not enough supply and a slow production line = slow and stagnant, but a stable service

2. Alternative investments are growing in popularity

Unsurprisingly, offices still remain the number one asset choice for investors but there has been a major shift in the popularity of alternative investments. The big mover has been residential property which is now the second most desirable asset for investors.

Rougemont has recently invested in a residential opportunity in Helmsley, North Yorkshire where much of the appeal is being fueled by the growing lack of supply of houses and a unique location. Most agree that the UK needs to build around 200,000 new homes a year to meet demand and we’re not even delivering half of that.

While industrial and retail remain attractive, other big movers include distribution and logistics due to the rise in e-commerce and other alternative investments like healthcare and student housing.

3. A British exit from the EU is the greatest threat to UK real estate

Flag of Europe

The Conservative’s securing a majority at the last General Election has been widely welcomed across the investment sector, but the prospect of Britain leaving the EU following a promised referendum is seen as a major threat to the stability of the market.

Two-thirds of those polled said an EU exit would be bad, saying it would cause significant disruption in the short-term and would send a poor signal to international occupiers in the longer-term. Crucially, many are sceptical that Britain will leave the EU and few are delaying investment decisions as a result.

In reality, the impact of an exit from the EU is extremely difficult to predict but my feeling is that this referendum will be used as a tool for Prime Minister David Cameron to renegotiate a better deal for Britain and that property will largely remain unaffected.

Another key concern was a rise in interest rates as many property companies and developers are still heavily in debt. Surprisingly, few were concerned about a Greek exit from the EU, with just 1% saying it could destabilise the UK market.

4. Devolved powers to the north will be key

The proposed Northern Powerhouse initiative – a plan to give more powers to Northern England to speed up infrastructure and development work – has been warmly welcomed across the real estate sector.

The north is seen as a land of opportunity for developers, investors and occupiers alike and I’ve written at length about the growing popularity of the regions in our blogs. As a result, a resounding 84% of those in the poll supported the Northern Powerhouse plans.

By strengthening links across the Pennines and from Liverpool up to Newcastle, developers believe the north can demonstrate real strength and vision and that will only help to improve investment prospects.

5. Manchester is the most attractive investment destination

With increasing commitments like HS2, the Northern Rail Hub and the Northern Powerhouse, Manchester has topped the list for the most appealing investment prospect. Climbing in popularity again, Manchester was named by 79% of those in the poll and was closely followed by Birmingham, Bristol and Leeds.

What’s also interesting is the fall in popularity of Scottish cities. The recent referendum and the rise of the SNP has shaken investor confidence, with many worried about land reform proposals and changes to the political and legal framework.

The top six “cities or towns to watch” were Cambridge, Reading, Liverpool, Newcastle, Oxford and Sheffield. Each of these has the “golden triangle” of ingredients – solid commuter connections, a strong and growing economy and excellent quality of life – and it’s what investors looking to the regions should be looking for.

 

After a stellar 2014 that saw the recovery take hold, 2015 is already demonstrating that the property cycle is firmly under way. In the first two months of this year, transaction volumes are up 20% on last year at £6.6bn.

That follows a record-breaking 2014 which saw £65bn invested in property – the highest level of investment on record and 27% above the ten-year annual average. Perhaps most surprising is the fact that investment volumes are now practically double that of 2012.

Put simply, its good news for property investors and things are looking rosy for 2015. In this latest investment insight, I look at the individual sectors, where the money is coming from and what challenges investors face.

Regional investment continues to rise

Regional markets will be the top performer this year and a substantial weight of money is now looking to the UK regions for opportunities that are outperforming London and the South East.

londonResearch from JLL shows that investment activity in the “Big Six” regions in 2014 was up 80% on the previous year and that hunger remains for 2014. That investor appetite is being fuelled by strong take-up rates and active demand currently stands at 4.2 million sq ft.

The result of that is that we are now seeing prime rental growth in all of the major regional markets and speculative development is returning.

However, the continuing demand for space means that the Grade A shortage is intensifying and vacancy rates are now just 1.6%.

What that means for property investors is that good quality, well-located secondary stock is a great option and can deliver great returns. It will mean a slightly greater risk, but the right property will still attract solid tenants.

2015-04-09_1539

 

UK Capital Markets infographic FINAL (PDF)

 

Where is the investment cash coming from?

Overseas investors continue to dominate and account for half of all money being put into property in the UK. The USA and China dominate, accounting for 15% of all investment. Investment from America has more than doubled and Asian money is increasing at a significant rate.

The big story of 2014 was the return on the institutional investors. In 2014 these funds increased their spend on property by more than 30% year on year, further reflecting the growing confidence in the sector.

For property investors, the sheer weight of money in the market means growing competition for quality office and industrial space. Again that will help to fuel growth in the secondary market and further speculative development, but could also herald the return of the patchy retail sector?

Is retail a good investment option?

retailRetail remains disappointing, although there are still some great opportunities and Rougemont has just completed a retail investment that is delivering fantastic returns.

Research from Knight Frank shows retail has continued to underperform office and industrial, but argues that it is growing and presents some good opportunities.

The recession is now pretty much forgotten by the public and people are spending again. The economy looks set to continue growing and wage rises are finally materialising. All this makes for a positive outlook for retail.

For investors, this means they can be optimistic about retail but they must also be very careful of the remaining areas where recovery will be unlikely. The right retail investment is all about location – look for city centres and out-of-town parks in major regional centres – and convenience – look for car parking, food, drink and leisure.

Where should I invest my money in 2015?

Looking ahead and the General Election will be worrying some – especially as the threat of a double election continues to grow with no clear winner. However, as I’ve said before, property is a safe haven in times of political instability and will see little impact.

Offices and industrial remain a safe, albeit challenging, investment option. Both are seeing strong take-up and rental growth and are also seeing the return of speculative development – further evidence of a healthy outlook. However, that means investors have to work much harder to find quality assets.

fireIn retail, it remains challenging but there are good quality options for the careful investor who seeks out prime locations. For the foolhardy, there are still retail ghost towns which will offer little in the way of returns. Be careful and seek expert advice if you are considering retail.

Overall, property in 2015 will at least match the figures seen in 2014 and that is good news for investors. Now, if we can just get past the political merry-go-round…

Investment Insight James Craven square FINALThe official results are in and 2014 saw the second highest investment volumes in history. Total UK investment hit £59.3bn and that figure was driven by volume of sales rather than huge single deals. And, the good news is, that momentum from 2014 appears to be continuing into 2015.

Commercial property investors can continue to be bold in 2015, but they must also be aware that risk is growing and there is also £28bn of cash looking for a home, so competition will be fierce.

In this latest Investment Insight, I look at where you could consider investing your cash and also consider what impact political instability, devolved powers and the pension reforms could have on the property investment market.

Current commercial property investment market

Building roofThe current commercial property investment picture remains relatively unchanged from the end of 2014.

We are seeing increasing occupier appetite driven by solid GDP growth and that means investor demand is also soaring. The result is that demand is currently outstripping supply and that is putting downward pressure on yields.

The office and industrial sectors have both seen the return of speculative development, such is the confidence in occupier and investor appetite, and the retail sector is also performing strongly. Investors are positive about well-let and well-configured shops, particularly in shopping centres, and even the secondary retail stock is beginning to attract the more risk averse and yield-hungry investors.

However, with this increasing demand coupled with limited supply, investors are having to take on more risk to secure the returns they seek.

Will the General Election and political instability in the EU affect investors?

I’ve already talked about the UK General Election in previous blogs, but investment is a global game and many will be concerned about the outcome of “the closest election since 1945” and a catalogue of crises across the EU.

City StreetWith tensions rising in the Ukraine, fractured relationships over EU policies and the Greeks now pretending the cheque they wrote for the Euro bailout loan has been lost in the post, it’s difficult to predict how economies will react.

In addition to the poll here in the UK, elections are also due to be held in Spain, Portugal, Poland, Denmark, Finland and Turkey. What this all means is that politics will be at the forefront of everyone’s mind during 2015 and it is impossible to say how it will all play out.

However, we can draw on the lessons of history. I’ve played down the potential of any significant impact on the investment market from political upheaval and Savills research team has agreed with me in their latest report.

The report says that while global instability may have a small impact on UK investors, the effect of the General Election will be “negligible”. Researchers show that during previous elections, the markets remain largely unaffected and follow the prevailing market conditions.

Looking across Europe, while the markets could be volatile, we will still see low interest rates, growing occupier demand due to lower oil and commodity prices, a lower euro and stronger spending power which will all be attractive to investors. The only potential threat on the horizon could be Quantative Easing in Europe which could have a slowing effect here in the UK.

What else should property investors consider?

The other two interesting factors for 2015 are the pension reforms that come into force in April and the continuing devolution of power to the UK regions.

PensionsIn April, savers will be able to draw down lump sums from their pension savings and then invest it where they want. Inevitably, some of that cash will be ploughed directly into property or into funds that invest into property.

This new pile of cash will further increase competition and will force investors to move up the risk curve. It will be interesting to see how much pension money will turn to property and for many savers, syndicated property investment funds like ours will be an attractive option as it will offer them the chance to spread the risk while also securing above average returns.

At the end of last year, Manchester was given new powers over transport, planning, housing and skills. Most importantly, it was given much more freedom to decide on how best to spend its cash. This heralds the dawn of a new era of the UK regions securing devolved powers from central Government.

With the divide between London and the regions growing, any new government will have to continue this trend of devolved powers.

We already know that the regions have become much more attractive to property investors and the new powers present a major opportunity to investors. With money being spent on delivering growth through infrastructure, skills and new development, there will be a wealth of lucrative opportunities and investors need to watch this evolution of our regional centres with interest.

Where should I invest my money?

OfficePut simply, 2015 will continue to be another good year for investors. We won’t see the same level of opportunities as we did last year, but investors can still have confidence.

In the months ahead it will be about taking more risk, albeit carefully calculated, but there will still be some great opportunities for savvy investors and we don’t really need to worry about the impact of the forthcoming election.

But, don’t take my word for it. Chief Executive of Lambert Smith Hampton, Ezra Nahome, says it best in his latest investment report: “Investors will move up the risk curve to make the most of secondary opportunities, and those with in-depth market knowledge are going to be in the strongest position to capitalise.”

 

In April of this year savers over the age of 55 will be given much greater freedom with the money they have poured into their pension funds for retirement. In a major pension reform unveiled by Chancellor George Osborne, savers will now be able to take a number of smaller lump sums from their pension fund and 25% will be tax free.

The move is all part of a drive by the Government to make people take more responsibility for their future finances and enable savers to seek far better returns than the paltry sums seen in recent years.

Savers have always had the option of taking 25% of their pension in a tax-free lump sum, but were then generally corralled into buying an annuity. However, under the new system, savers can now cash in smaller amounts and then make their own decisions on how best to invest their cash.

But, how should you invest that £50,000 from your pension fund? What will deliver the best return on a lump sum from a pension? What will £50,000 get you in today’s market? And, now you have it, where is your pension fund money safest?

To help you make an informed choice, I’ve provided some examples of what £50,000 in today’s market will get you and what you can expect in return.

1. Use your pension money to buy your dream car

For many, a £50,000 windfall from the pension reform will be an opportunity to snap up the car they’ve always fantasised about owning. Tearing across the countryside with the hood down and gathering admiring glances is always going to be a temptation, but it does come with some drawbacks.

If you’re looking for something new, £50,000 could buy you a sporty Porsche Cayman or Jaguar XF. While they may fulfil your desires and provide reliability, bear in mind many of these cars will be worth £20,000 less in just three years – assuming you don’t put it through a neighbour’s hedge the first time you put your foot down.

Many will say a classic car is a far safer bet and £50,000 opens up a world of possibilities for those demanding vintage style. At the minute, classic cars are soaring in value and could provide an attractive investment option. However, appetites change and you don’t have to look much into the past to see plummeting values in the classics sector. Classic cars also cost considerable amounts to maintain and could prove to be a major drain on day-to-day finances.

2. Spend the pension lump sum on designer fashion or jewellery

Fashion and retail labels constantly provide us with something to aspire to and £50,000 will ensure even the most well-dressed will glance over with envy as you adorn yourself with some of the most desirable items on the planet.

A stroll down any of the world’s most exclusive High Streets and shopping malls will quickly provide a wealth of options for spending a lump sum from your pension with shoes, handbags and jewellery all capable of demanding colossal price tags.

For example, the Leiber Precious Rose handbag features 1,000 diamonds and hundreds of other valuable stones and will cost you a little over £50,000. Similarly, visit a store like Asprey and you could spend £50,000 on a solid silver safe in the shape of a Gorilla.

The one drawback is that if you want to protect your investment, you can’t wear or use any of these exclusive items and nothing falls out of fashion faster than fashion itself.

3. Use the pension reform to fund your hobby

Everyone has a favourite pastime and all of them cost money. In the UK, golf and cycling are among the most popular and both can easily help you to spend your pension fund.

In golf, £50,000 will get you a year’s membership at arguably the best course in the world, the Liberty National in New Jersey, USA, or a set of Honma Golf Five Star clubs – granted you do get a bag and some accessories in that price. Obviously a year’s membership is short-lived and the first duff shot on the tee will soon destroy the value of your clubs, especially when they are subsequently wrapped around a tree or dumped in the lake by the club house.

Cycling can also quickly escalate. The Aston Martin One-77 cycle costs £30,000 and can be accessorised with an exclusive range of Gucci cycling products. A quick and painful trip to the tarmac will again put a serious dint in any future value.

4. Romance…

Follow the example of a young Chinese programmer who spent £50,000 on 99 iPhones on Singles Day in the country and then arranged them in a heart before proposing to his girlfriend. It was a massive romantic gesture, especially considering he earns just £25,000 a year, and she said NO.

While romantic gestures may provide much needed investment for the soul, it rarely provides a monetary return. Opt for some roses and invest the rest of your money elsewhere.

5. Invest your pension fund in syndicated property

Property has long been a safe bet for investors and people taking advantage of smaller lump sums under the new pension reform will undoubtedly consider property as an investment.

Syndicated property is a valuable vehicle for enabling smaller investors to get a stake in larger properties that can offer higher returns, secured against the strength of the tenant and the bricks and mortar. By choosing this option, investors get income from quarterly returns while also seeing the value of the property potentially grow.

There’s more confidence back in the property market and tenants are beginning to commit to longer leases. We are also seeing a growing appetite among high net wealth individuals for this type of investment.

With this type of investment there is a huge difference between the return on a Government gilt, which is typically 2.5-3 per cent. Commercial property is delivering average returns of around 6-7 per cent and Rougemont Estates is delivering better returns than that.

Minimising property investment risk

Risk in this sort of investment is minimised by buying properties in prime locations that offer strong prospects for growth through lease renegotiation or property conversion.

Investors, like us, need to look to buy bullet-proof assets. These are properties with quality tenants, solid lease agreements and great future potential.

Syndicated property investment still offers a good, long term, predicted income stream above market level. While many are still wary of syndicated commercial property investment, for the right investor, this is a sector that can deliver solid returns and rising confidence in the market means the opportunities are continuing to grow.

If you do decide to invest in property on your own, consider how to manage it, and you could even consider creating your own syndicate with family or friends. With both of these options, feel free to speak to us about how we can provide help or support.

While many are concerned about how people will spend the lump sums from the pension reform, this new legislation will present significant opportunities for investors. While many of the suggestions here are a little tongue-in-cheek, savers who do their research and find investment opportunities that are relatively risk free will see far better returns than their current arrangement.

If you have any further suggestions for investment opportunities, I’d love to hear them in the comments below.

Investment Insight header Jan Fletcher

We can predict a lot about 2015 with certainty. There will be another Royal baby, the UK political merry-go-round will hit full spin in the run-up to the General Election and Top Gear’s Jeremy Clarkson will court further controversy.

However, developments like pension reform, continuing uncertainty and deflation in the eurozone, the potential for interest rate rises and the weight of cash pouring out of the institutional funds can make investment predictions a daunting prospect for some.

In reality, 2015 will follow a similar path to 2014 for those considering commercial property investment. It will be a year of growing occupier demand that will help to fuel rental growth and increasing investor appetite. The one difference will be that the dwindling lack of supply will increase competition for quality assets and that means many investors will have to increase their appetite for risk to secure the returns they seek.

In this Investment Insight, I aim to give an overview of what we can expect from the year ahead and share some of the views from experts across the sector. In the weeks to come, we’ll also be discussing these issues in more details through further blogs.

Will the General Election affect the commercial property investment market?

Image courtesy of [David Castillo Dominici] at FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Image courtesy of [David Castillo Dominici] at FreeDigitalPhotos.net

As James said in the last update, I also don’t think the General Election will have a major impact on investments this year. With so little differentiating our major political parties, British politics are perceived as stable and that means most investors are rarely troubled by changes at the top.

Unlike more liquid assets, property is not as quickly affected by political swings and that means it can be a safe haven while Prime Minister David Cameron aims to hold off the advances of Labour’s Ed Miliband UKIP’s Nigel Farage and secure a second term.

The potential issues are the risk that some occupiers may hold off on decisions until after the election and overseas investors may be put off by the prospect of an EU referendum if the Tories hang on to power.

This is a view shared by Caroline Simmons, the head of investment at UBS, who says the election will be a risk, but appetite remains strong.

Even if we see a massive shift in Government and political policy, the impact on the property investment market could take years to crystallise.

How will the faltering eurozone affect the UK economy?

We are already seeing signs of deflation in the eurozone – the European Central Bank revealed that December saw a minus 0.2 per cent dip – and this could have a significant impact on the UK.

The knock on effect of this can cripple economies as it makes debts harder to service, causes falling prices and it can also lead to business and households putting off investment and spending, which hits corporate profits and costs jobs.

Several people are predicting that inflation could remain negative in the Eurozone until later in the year and that causes people to hold off on spending, thinking things will get cheaper as a result. In reality, it will most likely lead to Quantative Easing in Europe and that could have a devastating impact on inflation targets in the UK.

Inevitably, that would force the Bank of England to take further action to prevent our strong growth from stalling. From an investor point of view, this could have a slowing effect on property and yields and it’s something everybody should be aware of.

Where will investors be spending their money?

The London investment market is cooling off as all of the quality assets have now been snapped up and that means most investors are now looking to the regions.

The biggest issue is a lack of prime stock. Speculative development has now returned, albeit largely in the distribution and city centre office sectors where there is limited supply for occupiers, and, in any event, investors will have to wait another 18 months for these new opportunities to materialise.

The institutional funds are also under great pressure to spend the mountains of cash at their disposal and that means they – along with overseas investors and other major funds – are having to increase their risk profile, consider secondary stock and look at new locations.

This move down the food chain means there is increasing competition for quality assets and investors will have to work harder to find the right investment. Rougemont Estates specialises in finding these “pockets of value” and we are currently finalising a deal to invest in a long-leased prime retail investment asset that has a captive market and a queue of retailers requiring a presence on the same high street.

Historically, we wouldn’t typically consider retail investments however, having seen the beginnings of the return of the ”High Street” after seven years of devastation, rationalisation and change, it is encouraging to see this discounted investment sector rejuvenating itself.

However, out of town retail remains a concern due to the “online shopping” factor. Likewise secondary retail continues to suffer as the “High Street” has fundamentally changed and contracted leaving essentially prime only.

In general, there is still a significant lack of quality stock and whilst care must be taken, we are still confident about the year ahead. We continue to see opportunities and are working alongside occupiers to maximise their occupational requirements whilst also engineering quality investment opportunities both for syndication and individuals.

Where will money from the pension reform be spent?

Key considerations for the year ahead include the anticipated interest rate rise later in the year, the potential of a new mansion tax and the increased stamp duty. All of these could impact on certain sectors of the property world and that will inevitably have some impact on investment opportunities.

However, perhaps the biggest impact will be from the new pension reforms that allow people to take their cash and invest it where they want. Many will look to invest in property and this new weight of cash, while increasing competition, will also add to the strength of commercial property investment syndicates.

While many may opt for the “bank of mum and dad” option and help their children onto the property ladder, many will be looking to improve the returns on their cash by investing in a range of syndicated commercial property investments.

What is the outlook for 2015?

In 2014, we bounced back. Occupier demand grew, rents began to increase and investment across the UK topped £50bn.

It will be the same story in 2015. The weight of money will continue to drive the sector ahead and, although the total amount of investment will probably be down due to the lack of supply, it will be another solid year with some great opportunities for securing decent returns.

Investor appetite will remain strong as, even with an interest rate hike, returns from property will continue to far outstrip bond yields for the foreseeable future.

As always, this information does not constitute investment advice and the views expressed are purely those of the Directors of Rougemont Estates. These regular updates aim to help you develop your own strategy for investment by sharing clear independent research on what you can expect from the commercial property market in the months ahead.

If you have any thoughts on what lies ahead, I’d love to hear them in the comments below.